Tomorrow's ARG NH Tracking Results

Most likely, tomorrow's NH results will show another dip for Dean and a gain for Clark.

Why? Since 2/3 of the ARG tracking results are same from one day to the next, Dean's 2 point drop in one day actually means that his Jan 5 result is about 6 points worse than his January 2 result, while the reverse is true for Clark. This helps Clark's numbers and hurts Dean's for the next two days, even if the January 6-7 daily results look like January 3-4 rather than January 5.

So don't get excited if tomorrow's trend looks like this:

         Jan 2-4  Jan 3-5  Jan 4-6
Dean       39       37        36
Clark      12       14        15
Kerry      14       14        14

However, if you see Dean or Clark move 2 or more points higher or lower than 36/15, you will have some real news.